The state of Sam Altman's Bubble Bet, 1 year before deadline 10 by rreichman | 3 comments on Hacker News. TL;DR It seems likely that Sam Altman will lose his 2015 bubble bet, with mid-stage companies growing like crazy but early-stage and late-stage companies growing a bit slower than he expected. A big IPO for Uber and big fundraising round for Gitlab could still give Altman the win. * In March 2015 Sam Altman published his Bubble Bet blog post (http://bit.ly/2CHS4y3), in which he decries the talks of a tech bubble and proposes a bet on the future of tech valuations. His proposition is that by January 1 2020: 1. The top 6 US companies (Uber, Palantir, Airbnb, Dropbox, Pinterest, and SpaceX) which at the time were worth just over $100B, will be worth at least $200B. 2. A group of mid-stage YC-backed companies (Stripe, Zenefits, Instacart, Mixpanel, Teespring, Optimizely, Coinbase, Docker, and Weebly) at the time worth $9B will be worth at least $27B. 3. The YC Winter 2015 batch ...